Snippets: Corat Coret Pot pet Pot Pet..

Hi blog ini mcm ada pasang surut pula heheh.. kejap update kejap x. Well pejam celik pejam clik da 2 tahun aku unemployed. "Just i and my chart" itu lah yang berlaku sepanjang 2 tahun,berhadapan dengan mcm2 tekanan dan krisis yg mematangkan aku untuk terus survive dalam forex. Kehadiran Haikal rakan serumah aku untuk turut ikut serta berdagang di pasaran paling bahaya di dunia serba sedikit membawa keceriaan untuk aku terus mengambil rezeki di dalam market.

Bukan mudah untuk mencari jawapan kepada setiap pergerakan di dalam market, memaki, bercakap sorang sorang, bertanya mengapa dan mengapa sorang sorang sudah menjadi kebiasaan aku bila aku berhadapan dengan pasaran huhu, ayat2 biasa.. "weh adeh ape hal la ko turun plak.. price da langgar resistance kot.. bodo betul la".. haha itu lah antara ayat2 biasa yang aku pakai untuk meredakan sedikit tekanan bila menghadapi floating yang agak mengerikan.

Tidak lupa gak pada rakan2 trader yang lain .. jeehan, eto , apeng , salleh , amero,pearnet dan rafuzi yang sering berkongsi pendapat, dan memaki bersama sama.

Semoaga maju jaya aku ucapkan kepada kalian.

Tidak lupa juga kepada www.aiskosong.net tempat lepak baru aku skarang.. at least tadek la boring sangat hehe.

Akhir kata lawan tetap lawan ...

counter trend setup

Tips
Method :- Divergence, Trendline, Candlestick charting technique (formation), Wiseman 1.
Target :- Fibonacci retracement. 50% / 61.8 % or depends on you trading plan
Filter :- Stochastic.

GBPJPY 17/7/08.

Possibility of rate hike by BOJ this year

Yen May Rise as BOJ More Likely to Act, Gyohten Says

By Kosuke Goto and Shigeki Nozawa

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may rise as high as 100 per dollar this year as the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise interest rates than the Federal Reserve, said Toyoo Gyohten, former currency-policy chief at Japan's Ministry of Finance.

The Bank of Japan, which left rates unchanged at a policy meeting today, may lift borrowing costs should inflation pick up and the economy sustain growth of at least 1 percent, Gyohten said. Futures traders ruled out the chance of a Fed increase next month as shares of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies, almost halved last week.

"The Fed is most likely to maintain its current level of interest rates,'' Gyohten, president for the Institute of International Monetary Affairs in Tokyo, said in an interview yesterday. "The BOJ is more likely to raise rates. The medium- term trend is for a weaker dollar and a stronger yen.''

The yen has gained 15 percent against the U.S. currency in the past year, trading at 105.90 per dollar at 1:52 p.m. in Tokyo from 106.14 in New York yesterday. Gyohten predicts the yen, which touched an almost 13-year high of 95.76 per dollar on March 17, will stay between 100 and 110 for the rest of 2008.

Gyohten, 77, presided over Japan's currency policy in his role as vice finance minister for international affairs between 1986 and 1989. He is also senior adviser of the Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., Japan's biggest publicly traded lender by assets, and in November correctly predicted the collapse of an "asset bubble'' in China. China's benchmark stock index has slumped 49 percent since Nov. 1.

`Monetary Hawk'

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his six policy board colleagues today left the overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent at their monthly meeting, as expected by all 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Shirakawa was appointed by parliament in April, replacing Toshihiko Fukui.

"They have a new governor, who is in my view basically more of a monetary hawk, even compared with his predecessor,'' Gyohten said. "He has a very strong view about the need for monetary normalization.''

The Bank of Japan is reluctant to keep interest rates at a negative level, after accounting for inflation, he said.

The bank today raised its projection for core inflation to 1.8 percent for the year ending March 2009, from 1.1 percent three months ago, and cut its economic growth estimate to 1.2 percent from 1.5 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, rose 1.5 percent in May, the fastest pace since 1998.

Rate Increase?

"With inflation accelerating, we cannot rule out the possibility of a BOJ rate hike later this year,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest publicly traded financial group.

There is a 13 percent chance the Bank of Japan will increase its key rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.75 percent by Dec. 31, according to calculations by JPMorgan Chase & Co. using overnight interest-rate swaps.

The Federal Reserve has left its target lending rate at 2 percent since the end of April, after reducing borrowing costs seven times from 5.25 percent since September to prevent a housing slump from dragging the U.S. economy into a recession.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 88 percent odds policy makers will keep borrowing costs unchanged at 2 percent at their next meeting on Aug. 5, compared with a 23 percent chance a month ago.

"Just like the BOJ, the Fed is also faced with dual enemies, one in the front, one at the back,'' Gyohten said. "In their case, the greater enemy is a recession.''

Dollar Collapse

Monetary authorities are concerned about a possible "collapse'' of the dollar, said Gyohten. The euro is within a cent of its April 22 record high of $1.6019 and the Australian dollar today touched 97.57 U.S. cents, its strongest in 25 years.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on June 9 that intervention is "never off the table'' and he supports a "strong'' dollar". Central banks intervene by buying or selling foreign exchange.

Japan's Ministry of Finance is unlikely to buy dollars unless the U.S. government calls on it to do so, Gyohten said.

"If the dollar collapses, I am sure the U.S. Treasury will strongly urge the BOJ and ECB to join them in exercising some market intervention,'' he said. Any unilateral intervention in currency markets would be useless, he said.

The last time the major industrialized countries intervened was on Sept. 22, 2000, when they bought the euro after it tumbled 27 percent from its 1999 debut. They last propped up the dollar in 1995, when it sank almost 20 percent in four months against the Japanese yen to a post-World War II low of 79.95.