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Saturday, November 22, 2008

fill the boring slot.

Hi huhu just woke up from slept , i lay down on my bed yesterday around 6.30 am huhu.. so how your performance this week.. hope fully u get an extra bonuses from the market and enjoy the week days ehehe. Last sleep ive got a weird dream.. in that dream coming ones wizard wearing black wizard coat with wizard hat and come to me, he didnt say anything but that wizard just smile to me ahah fuck.

then when i started with say hi, who are you.. he said im market wizard haha, then i shock for a while huh what market wizard?, then he ask.. now what pair you want me create a movement huhu i just think this is nonsense.. i shit on him ... i said go to hell .. but he said its up to you haha.. then he said again please give him one chance..

then i said ok la ok la.. now i want GBP JPY drop until 120.00.. and i want sell 2 standart lot.. the wizard say ok no problem.. but give him a few times while i try to set the order.. current price is 134 i think ehhe..

then a few minute later i see a movement.. the wizard show the wizard stick on my monitor hahahaha.. and the price free fall fak.. its really makes me crazy.. price free fall just in 30 min.. and hit my tp.. dem u know how many dollar i won.. 28k usd hahaha.. i regret.. if i know that wizard able to move the market i will sell the maximum lot and unit hahaha.. im really happy.. then suddenyly the wizard dissappear..

and i woke up from my sleep.. owh damm its just a dream hahahaha

bye bye market wizard :(

Gold Prices Rally in a Move to Safety

Gold prices rallied as safe-haven buying amid broader global market worries sent the metal briefly past $800 an ounce.

The move higher gained support from participants buying back positions to cover "short" bets that prices would fall. Traders and investors also added fresh long positions that anticipate further price increases in the wake of Thursday's expiration of December gold options.

[Gold]

Support after option expiration "left shorts scrambling to cover, adding to a jump in investment demand," said George Gero, vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.

The price of the thinly traded nearby November gold contract rose $43.10, or more than 5.8%, to settle at $791.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The price of the most-active December contract also rose $43.10, settling at $791.80 an ounce. In pit-trading hours, the contract hit as high as $801.90, then moved as high as $802.80 in afterhours electronic trading.

Although the safe-haven buying picked up from the muted levels of late, the rally may prove fragile as there is the potential for profit-taking going into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Prices may "crumble" next week if some measure of calm returns to financial markets, said Sterling Smith, vice president with FuturesOne.

Oil Prices May Fall Further

2:50

Sean Brodrick, natural resources analyst at Moneyandmarkets.com, explains why more bad economic news could depress oil prices further. He also discusses what traders can expect from OPEC's upcoming meeting.

"My gut feeling is it's probably going to fade," said Michael Gross, broker and futures analyst with OptionSellers.com.

Much of Friday's rally in gold came as participants fled to the metal amid "wider financial infrastructure concerns," Mr. Smith said.

Gold benefited as participants looked for a store of value while they fear a "general economic meltdown" and worry about Citigroup Inc., said Zachary Oxman, senior trader with Wisdom Financial. "I think people are looking for a place to hoard money," Mr. Oxman said.

Executives at Citigroup, faced with a plunging stock price, began weighing the possibility of auctioning off pieces of the financial giant.

Gold also gained momentum when rising prices triggered preplaced buy orders.

An options contract conveys the right -- while futures contracts are obligations -- to buy or sell a commodity or equity at a certain price in the future.

In other commodity markets:

COTTON: Prices rose 4.7%, as the aggressive selling that plagued the market earlier in the week dissipated. Cotton also rose on news that most of the deliveries made against the December contract on the first day of the delivery cycle were accepted by an end-user, a bullish sign. The price of the December contract rose 1.35 cents to settle at 40.99 cents a pound

Thursday, November 20, 2008

GBPJPY wave 5


Here they come, i believe GJ has end the correction and try to perform wave 5 to complete the 5 wave sequence. Just follow the trend, it could be falling down until reach 132.56 - 61.8 fibonacci ratio for wave 5 forecasting.

Enjoy the trade, enjoy the breakout.

By the way for GU yesterday im really sorry because obviously im miss look with resistance rejected, it was a bull trap actually.

Warmest regard
yaqen

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

United State Economic Focus - How Obama Can Fix the Economy

I'm mystified by all the hand-wringing about what a terrible time it is to be a new U.S. president.

Think of the presidents who have been judged by history to be truly great -- Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, George Washington -- and they've all served in times of crisis. But imagine what it would be like to be president when the crisis first unfolds, such as Herbert Hoover or now George Bush.

After all, the electorate wouldn't be clamoring for change if everything were great, if easy credit remained there for the asking, stocks were hitting new all-time highs and speculators were still flipping Las Vegas condos. Crisis provides the political cover for undertakings that would otherwise be unthinkable.

Among other boons, for the time being we can forget about the deficit, because one thing we know from the Great Depression and Keynesian economics is that in crises like this the government has to get out there and spend. World War II produced the biggest deficits as a percentage of gross domestic product in U.S. history -- and an end to the Depression. There will be time to balance the budget later.

With that in mind, here are my prescriptions for the economic crisis, were I stepping into the White House.

  • Shoring up the banking and financial system must take first priority. Confidence, which eroded steadily after the demise of Bear Stearns, must be restored. We learned from the disaster at AIG that you can't build a moat around the big banks and call it a day.

The non-bank participants in the global financial system are just as important, since the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. This means providing capital and liquidity to insurance companies and industrial finance arms like GMAC and GE Capital in return for preferred stock and ownership stakes where appropriate. These should be good investments, since so much of the crisis is psychological, and values will rebound when confidence is restored.

  • The U.S. needs a comprehensive policy for faltering industrial concerns, probably starting with the auto industry.

This can't be another case-by-case, ad hoc approach that arbitrarily favors some companies deemed too big to fail while consigning others to bankruptcy court. I favor the Warren Buffett approach: preferred shares that pay interest and warrants to acquire an equity stake at an attractive price. In fact, I might even ask Mr. Buffett to step up to this task. This can't be a bailout of private-equity firms or existing shareholders. Someone in the Treasury will have to start thinking like a distressed-asset manager, since he or she will be managing the taxpayers' money to earn a profit and will have to make tough-minded decisions about which investments are likely to pay off and which aren't.

Will this be branded "socialism?" Not if the U.S. consistently manages its stakes as though it had a fiduciary duty to taxpayers, as opposed to management, labor, and other interests. The U.S. should be as tough on these companies as any private-equity firm, do what it takes to turn them around for the long term, and then get out, hopefully at a profit.

  • Another lesson from the Depression is that spending on infrastructure helps, and can also be an excellent long-term investment. China just unveiled a $586 billion program that includes spending for airports, rail lines and highways, housing and other programs. These should raise quality of life, enhance productivity, and provide an economic boost. There's no shortage of similar needs in the U.S.

If I'd just been elected on a promise to reduce dependence on foreign oil, I'd pour money into public transportation, including links between airports and central city transportation hubs. (I'd like to make a personal plea for an efficient rail line between New York's Kennedy airport and Midtown.) And I'd invest in education and the arts, which will be starving for new facilities given soaring state and municipal deficits. I would certainly not be investing in bridges to nowhere, which is why this program has to be run from the White House, not Congress.

  • I'd end compensation for failure. I'd legislatively ban employment contracts that call for huge severance payments without regard to performance. And I'd make prosecuting those guilty of fraud a top priority. When the government injects capital and takes a stake, I'd oust incumbent management unless there was a compelling reason not to. But I wouldn't cap pay for success, including at big banks. This country needs incentives for the ingenuity, hard work, good judgment and experience that have made it great, now more than ever. I don't begrudge Obama adviser Eric Schmidt at Google his billions; I wish we had more Googles, creating jobs and wealth and a product that benefits everyone.
  • As president, I'd be the spokesman-in-chief. Transparency is essential. People have to understand what steps are being taken and why. They have to understand how the U.S. can afford all this, and how their tax money is being invested in our future rather than spent on useless pork. I'd be out talking and listening in the offices, the factories, the farms of America, not huddled in the White House.

I realize all this is easy for me to say. I'm not a politician, and I don't envy anyone the rigors of a national campaign or the prospect of negotiating with Congress. But I think this is a great time to be president of the U.S., and if I were Barack Obama, I'd be seizing the historic opportunity that has just been handed me.

petikan dari wallstreet journal.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Euro Rises on Dollar, Yen

Risk-sensitive currency pairs advanced on a rise in U.S. stocks, despite a bruising U.S. employment report.

The euro and British pound rose to intraday highs against the dollar, while the dollar and euro did the same against the yen, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 250 points.

The dollar's and yen's rivals have been tracking stock markets recently, instead of following interest-rate expectations as in the past. Any spike in risk encourages traders to unwind bets that were funded with borrowed dollars -- the reserve currency of the world -- or yen, which had been the cheapest major currency. But when stocks rise, traders extend those bets.

Friday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.2763 from $1.2685 late Thursday, while the dollar was at 98.31 yen from 97.75 yen. The U.K. pound was at $1.5672 from $1.5618, and the dollar was at 1.1770 Swiss francs from 1.1794 francs Thursday.

The Labor Department reported payrolls fell by 240,000 in October -- larger than the consensus expected, but less than many analysts considered over the past days -- and the unemployment rate rose to a 14-year high.

"There was so much bad news in the last couple of days, which meant the consensus was kind of out of date," said Jens Nordvig, a currency strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York.

Recent disappointing economic reports included the U.S. Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and service-sector reports, weekly jobless claims and consumer-spending data.

With traders prepared for the worst, the dollar only briefly gained against the euro and pound, and fell against the yen, before turning around. "Essentially, the currency markets have not really reacted to this [payrolls] data," said David Powell, currency strategist at Bank of America in London.

However, struggling economic conditions should keep the dollar and yen supported, analysts say.

"In this risk-averse environment, we suspect that the dollar and yen will continue to benefit from a shift away from emerging markets," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo in New York.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Grim Jobs Data Pressures Dollar


The U.S. dollar declined Friday after the Labor Department said more jobs were lost in October than forecast, indicating continued pain for the economy.

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, fell to 85.826 from 86.280 in late trading Thursday.

The economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, more than the 210,000 estimated by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. September payrolls were also revised downward. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, highest in 14 years. Economists expected it to rise to 6.3% from 6.1%.

The euro rose to $1.2758, up from $1.2677. The British pound rebounded to $1.5703 against the dollar from $1.5530.

"The economy is likely to continue on a deteriorating path," said Christopher Sullivan, chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union. "I don't think anyone has a good idea of when a recovery might materialize."

That's likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower its target interest rate from 1% this year, , reducing the appeal of low-yielding dollar-based assets, he said.

The pound and euro sank Thursday after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank cut interest rates. The BOE Monetary Policy Committee slashed its benchmark by an unexpected and unprecedented 1.5 percentage points to 3%. The ECB dropped its key rate by a half point to 3.25%.

The dollar was buying 98.03 yen, versus 97.43 late Thursday.

The yen was the ultimate beneficiary of financial turmoil and surging risk aversion, soaring in October as investors stampeded out of once-popular carry trades. Such strategies are based on borrowing in low-yielding currencies, such as the yen, and using the proceeds to buy assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies.

The dollar has also been a beneficiary of rising risk aversion. Massive global deleveraging and repatriation of dollars from overseas and safe-haven flows served to boost the greenback in October.

Since the start of the month, a modest return of risk appetite had seen the yen and dollar retreat slightly from October's big gains.

But with equity markets falling Wednesday and Thursday, the sustainability of the risk-appetite revival appears questionable, analysts said.

In particular, the weak finish by U.K. and European equities in the wake of rate cuts by the Bank of England, the ECB and other European central banks "suggests that higher-yielding and emerging market currencies along with the euro and sterling are now vulnerable to renewed declines against the U.S. dollar," wrote strategists at BNP Paribas.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

GBPUSD head and shoulder


GBPUSD 1 hour time frame. I define this pattern is head and shoulder. And I assume overall trend is bearish bias.

GBPJPY again


It seems very hard to make a big movement,however I assume this is correction area so it could be a many trap over there. Such as failure breakout.

The attached figure is a latest scenario according to the technical analysis.

thank you.