Azril Wrote.. "copy from his note".

Forex and Me

I started learning Forex after I ended up penniless from HYIP (High Yield Investment Program) back then in 2004. I remembered back then, I have joined several HYIP programs together with a very close and good friend of mine. We were convinced to join the program as we were referred by a senior from our school who claimed profited from the investment. To cut things short, the program operator claimed that his account was freeze. We have already made 400% return from our investment during that time, but none could be cash-out.

The idea to learn Forex later came to our mind because of all these HYIP programs claimed that they have profited from Forex trading. It was in 2005. Since then, we kept ourselves busy looking for Forex education and gurus - from several forums, blogs and articles which related towards it. Eventually, my friend found a mentor, who we called ‘Godfather’. We started out with Marketiva platform and trade our virtual account. I did not learn much as I did not have PC and internet connection. I only relied on reading materials. I read a lot of Forex books for the rest of the year, but still couldn’t practise it anyhow.

In mid-2005 to 2006, I was busy with some physical businesses. I ran a kiosk in Subang Uptown selling accessories. The businesses were bad. Inappropriately, I turned into larger business in mid-2006, a franchise food kiosk named 1901 in 1 Utama. As the kiosk was operated by my staffs in 2007, I began to continue studying Forex at home from several new books I printed out. Luckily, I got myself a notebook from my mom. It was her old Acer notebook, but yet still functioning till today. I began trading my virtual account and at the same time selling electronics on Lelong.com.my. My trading system was really bad at that time; I almost could not implement any of the system I learned from my studies. I even joined a Forex discussion at UTM, Johor and met a number of seasoned traders. Then, I started to meet several so-called Forex Gurus whom I know from forums.

By the end of 2007, I met Yaqen. He wanted to purchase a mobile phone from me at that time. But we ended chatting about ourselves instead of the purchase he intended at first. Unlike other gurus I knew, he did not claim as one. He claimed himself a street trader. We have similar idea – making money is an art. He found Forex suits him well, while I was still struggling to find one. We started exchanging ideas and thoughts. We became great friends ever since. In early 2008, I invited Yaqen to stay with me as he got problem with his internet connection at home. As a returned favour, he thought me everything about Forex (but I could not absorb them all) and we traded Forex side-by-side. I remembered that I have doubled my virtual account within 2 months. We stayed together for nearly 2 months. After he left, I invested USD 500 into my account. Just within 1 month, all the money has gone. Again, I failed.

But I kept in touch with Yaqen. Both of us were busy during that time; I started to spend more time at the kiosk and went to class at night, while Yaqen started 9 to 5 job, and trade clients’ accounts at night. We used to chat about our problems. He always wanted to quit his job, while I always looked for new opportunity. I closed my kiosk in 2008 and became a freelance writer, writing about property, technology and electronics.

Just recently this year, I decided to start this investment group. Yaqen agreed to join as his big funder just withdraw all his investment and gave Yaqen nearly RM 10,000 from the profit which he had spend ‘wisely’ on his 1-week trip to London. =)

For all these years, Forex really fascinate me. I really want to conquer it, but I don’t think it is one of my traits.

avoid from nightmare.

This quater make me remember about last year. I dont want to speculate anything about this end of year but what we can see in higher timeframe (weekly) the trend doesnt stick at their own way.


In technical analysis most of us still expect this is only retracement in wave 4 but how good the accuration according to our technical analysis. Is it a new engagement will come. So what is your mind set now ? bullish or bearish ?.

trader in bullish site always waiting a good oppurtinity for Buy / Long.
trader in bearish site always waiting a good time for Selling / short.

So what site you are ?

Important to us determine the current trend. Are sure there is no trend in Correction mode ? then what happen to smaller timeframe. the trend is there.. only what mind set u programe in your mind.

Here i wanna share some Technical analysis from my opinion about GBPUSD.


the formula is buying > selling. ( buying is greater then selling.) for this moment. so you should know what mind set for trading u should programme in ur mind.

from my trading desk.

hi everyone it was a good start last 2 week. market move as i wish (please view my technical analysis at my blog ) especially for GBPUSD instrument. many of my friend ask me why i didnt trade GBPJPY yet ? owh i said this year is for GU :),if last year im very addicted with GBPYEN but an early 2009 i try to change my mind to become an independent trader and not to depends on GBPYEN movement, YES i agree GBPYEN volatility is not like other instrument,easy win and easy to loose.

Ive been trade for 4 years and now become 4 and half year, here is my chronology

May 2006 - Dec 2006.
I just know forex,pair,fundamental analysis ,technical analysis,SELL BUT CLOSE , and i began my trade with demo account with that time i used PFGFX brokerage from Russian.

Jan 2007 - March 2007
Ive been deposit my money for a live trading with 500 usd. at this moment i used elliott wave and MA crossing i forgot what is the setting for my MA that time. But i was lost around 400 usd. And i withdraw 100 usd because i think i need to fine tune my trading.

June 2007 - Dec 2007.
Yes i saw an improvement with my trading. at this moment my trading methodology was Elliott Wave and Fractal apart of "chaos trading" Im very satisfied with this method but i still feel like something less in my tuning. because i cant sustain my trading,sometimes i profit sometimes lost. within 7 month after plus and minus actually i just won 30% from my capital :).

Jan 2008 - June 2008.
Im still trading like usual but at the same time im still learn and find tune my trading setup. Day become day week become week month become month im still using my method and setup for technical and entering the market. Along this month i found a new touch it was a price action and trendline.

July 2008 - Sept 2008.
I become a swing trader,because im very impress with my new knowlege, i can surf at any market.Unfortunetly cloud didnt always bright. Just because of my greedy and over confidence i loss 50% from my capital. But at this time actually my margin already profit running.

Oct 2008 - Dec 2008.
Im still seeking what is my problem? is it my knowledge or is it my psychology ?
i start reading a few book . Certain book i buy direct from amazon.com because its hard to find a forex book in book store except kinokuniya. among a book that i very like until know is," Charting Made Easy", "Chaos Trading 2nd Edition"."Market Wizard","The New Market Wizard","The adventure of a currency trader" and The Way of The turtle. Many content in this book said about psychology when trading and good advise before entering the market. Within this month also i found my own setup after a mixup from chaos, elliott wave and price action and i name it SULTAN.

Jan 2009 - April 2009
Ive tried to implement what i have. Now i know why many trader especially beginner and newbie always die at this war. Foreign Exchange is a leading indicator for a world economic. That means forex trader is in front line of war. Just remember when long time ago when a war has arrive, front line soldier its the most cheaper life. The volatility and impact is very high. How to solve this ?just a knowledge,experience and intelligent is the most important thing u need to bring inside the market.

May 2009 until now.
Im very comfortable with my trade and still using my own setup. The key is patience and snipe just only when u need. dont ever waste your bullet :).

Sekian.

Muhamad Yaqin Mhd Nor

p/s Selamat berpuasa to all muslim in this world ;)

"Green back" will be back to the trend

Recently i always ask my self with another few question.

Did dollar will start the bearish trend after end of wave C ?

is it this is the effect after 700b bailout from Obama?

I assuming this pattern is head and shoulder that means this is one of the reversal signal in GBPUSD daily timeframe,however the retracement still didnt reach 61.8 or 50% but according to pattern and price action the bearish will coming.

In weekly timeframe the top candlestick formation in retracement perform a "shooting star" this is a good signal for reversal,another subject is channeling in weekly also, price was already peek and play around the resistance channel.

i believe GBPUSD will make big move in sooner possible week.
For today my advise is selling mode. just sell and beware with breakout trap. control your emotion and money management ops dont forget your stop loss :). Confident with your trading system..

happy trading happy weekend. ca alip mim bot caboott

Regards
Muhamad Yaqin Mhd Nor
Technical Market Analyst.

bull flag. GBPUSD

European session yesterday has proof that they wont give up with "green back", i believe there is no more retracement else. now is a buying time. The bullish trend just trigger and we are now in wave 3 inside 1hour timeframe. buy on dip yesterday is a good for swing until complete 5 wave sequence because we are heading to wave 5 righ now. price breakout at 1.63605 and i already buy this instrument. Good luck.

GBPUSD technical analysis daily timeframe

GBPUSD daily timeframe.

Top price just reach the resistance level. I believe this is the obvious retracement level. Selling mode for a while. According to fibonacci retracement and parallel channel its look possible to down until 38.2 ( support is overthere ). If we look at timeframe 1 hour there is a clear bearish divergence instead of confirmation which the trend is now going to correction. Just beware with any fake breakout because inside consolidation there are to many tricky breakout :). good luck.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis 5 minute timeframe

*Correction this chart is not GBPJPY but GBPUSD*.


here what ive seen at 5 minute time frame. Its look like bullish wave sequence in minor movement. already buy GU at 1.6453 and planning to hold the position until 161.8 fibonacci expansion. Just a small Stop loss its around 20 -30 pips onlye. have a nice trade good luck.

GBPJPY weekly SHI Channel

My analysis using SHI channel and fibonaci retracement. We are wave in C right now.. good movement for bullish. 38.2 is like possible target to reach. fasten ur seat belt :)

GBP JPY weekly.

Here i attached GBP JPY weekly timeframe. I dont want to make a big assuming about this pair. But however in smaller timeframe still has a huge fighting between bear and bull , since we looks it more to bearish.

Frankly said now we are in end of 1st quater of the year, we can see obviously the movement move in small range. More to spiky and pull back character.

My advise catch a proper signal. Significant to bearish .. pull back up then sell at ttop, try to tackle this skill.

Good luck

Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen Broad Drop Could End if Risk Aversion Returns, Analysts Say

The dollar retreated sharply against both the euro and the yen.

The euro was supported by some strength in stocks, while the yen was bolstered by technical factors, analysts said.

While the dollar was broadly weaker, analysts weren't convinced it was the beginning of a wholesale retreat. The dollar could resume strengthening against its rivals in coming sessions if risk aversion once again takes control of the markets, analysts said.

Foreign Exchange Data

In late-afternoon trading in New York, the euro was at $1.2848, up from $1.2675 late Tuesday, and the dollar was at 97.19 yen, down from 98.72 yen. The euro was at 124.87 yen from 125.12 yen. The pound was at $1.3869, up from $1.3747, and the dollar was at 1.1525 Swiss francs, down from 1.1618 francs.

The pound dropped to a six-week low of $1.3663 in overnight trading, ahead of the Bank of England's first foray into quantitative easing, before rebounding.

Since the start of February, the dollar has gained sharply against the yen. Analysts had said this week that a yen rebound was expected.

Jessica Hoversen, fixed-income and foreign-exchange analyst at MF Global in Chicago, said many market participants had expected the dollar to break through 100 yen, and its failure to do so prompted a retreat.

But recent weak Japanese data suggest the dollar's decline against the yen could be limited in coming sessions. "I think the fundamentals alone could support a dollar rally higher from this level," Ms. Hoversen said.

While currency-market participants have temporarily stopped reducing their long yen positions, that is likely to resume, said Francoys Levert, managing director and head of foreign-exchange sales for Canada at State Street Global Markets in Montreal. "There's a lot of bad news coming out of Japan, right now."

Other analysts suggested the dollar faces further downside against the yen. A report from CitiFX said the dollar's move below 97.90 yen could prompt a rapid move to 96.50 yen or lower. "History shows that [the dollar-yen rate] has the capability for really fast downside moves. We would not be surprised if this move takes place in the next 24 hours," the report said.

MF Global's Ms. Hoversen said the euro's gains were driven by an extension of Tuesday's rally and a correction from earlier oversold levels in the common currency. "The fundamentals clearly don't support this," she said.

There has been some decent buying of the euro in the past few sessions, but its gains could prove relatively short-lived, said State Street's Mr. Levert. "We're not convinced this is a sustainable rally in the euro. We think that U.S. dollar buying is still out there," he said

*this article i copy from wallstreet journal because im a subscriber. Enjoy the share ;)

USJJPY forecast " is it reversal sign "

After a long period seeking i retracement Hi. I believe price already consolidate and exhaust.

A few reversal sign has been appear to give us a light.But its just a sign please beware and wait a confirmation from the fundamental sentiment.

Unemployment makes all my Analysis Otherwise (EurUsd review )

Huge fighting yesterday night, i try to hold with short until the price reach the bottom trendline, unfortunately im misslook the Unemployment claim @ 9.30 gmt 8 ( kuala lumpur ). The actual result is "467K".

I assume this data makes my order hit my stop loss ;). Fuck U fundamental hahaha

EurUsd Shi Channel Setup

Ranging market always make trader suffer to make the decision. Usually for this case 1st tips is marked the support and resistance level, draw the trendline, draw the channel, and zoom out your chart. Basically it will show you a clear trend and situation especially where to tackle breakout area.

For now EU still consolidate, but the major movement is bearish bias.

According to the SHI channel, price playing at median line and will try to reach the bottom line. Together we wait and see.

Dollar Ends '09 Win Streak

The dollar retreated against the euro, the yen and the pound as concern flared about the U.S. economy, but the greenback clawed back losses as stock markets crumbled.

Wednesday marked the dollar's first losing session in 2009, snapping a five-day winning streak against the yen and three days of gains versus the euro.

The greenback had fallen against most rivals in overnight trading, stung by the bleak outlook on the U.S. economy shown Tuesday in the minutes of the December meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Foreign Exchange Data

The dollar's slide accelerated after a report by payroll company Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers indicated private-sector job losses of 693,000 in December, a far larger decline than expected by analysts.

A slump in U.S. equities coincided with the dollar's partial recovery, said analysts.

Late afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.3630, up from $1.3522 late Tuesday. The dollar was at 92.66 yen, down from 93.85 yen, while the euro traded at 126.30 yen, off from 126.91 yen. The pound traded at $1.5110, up from $1.4956, and the dollar was at 1.1016 Swiss francs, below 1.1143 francs late Tuesday.

"Although [the dollar] already was in retreat thanks to the FOMC minutes and President-elect Obama's musing on the potential for 'trillion dollar deficits for years,' the ADP employment report was another stone-cold dose of sober reality about the U.S. economy that helped cut the legs out from under U.S. stocks at the open and stemmed the recent movement toward higher-risk securities," said a report from David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires believe the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls data will show a loss of about 525,000 jobs in December. Wariness ahead of that report could weigh on the dollar Thursday.

"I think there is a case for a somewhat weaker dollar in the run-up to the nonfarm payrolls report," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank in New York.

And while the euro managed to retain a significant portion of it gains, the common currency could prove vulnerable, analysts said.

The euro could be stymied by expectations for continued rate cuts from the European Central Bank, as well as continued deterioration in economic data, said Tyson Wright, at Custom House, a currency-services firm in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.

—Robert Flint contributed to this article.

this article i copy from wallstreet journal because im a subscriber. Enjoy the share ;)

GBPUSD SHI CHANNEL SETUP

Instrument : GBPUSD
TimeFrame : 1 Hour.


Technical Analysis :

This instrument still moving inside the correction. In technical analysis reading the price for right now is bullish bias ( lower timeframe ) but consolidate at higher tframe especially 4 Hour and Daily.

At this moment quite hard for chartist to expect without any fundamental sentiment. But market can be anything.

My advise wait until this pair end the correction. And focus with Major trend ( bearish bias ).

EurJpy Review

Hi my last post was describe about EurJpy movement. At that moment im satisfied with my analysis becauase EJ move up around 100 pip ++ . Unfortunately it wasnt reach 161.8 fibonacci Expansion target and EJ simple turn back and i assume as retracement.

By the way. For right now its not good to swing. Better play safe for being time until this pair end the correction.

Good Evening EurJpy

Hi this is my first analysis for this year, i begin with EURJPY timefame 4hour. In my view at 1 hour timeframe EJ try to complete the correction before trigger the wave C or 3.

my opinion is Bullish bias but there is one hard resistance mebbi could be an obstacle for this pair to breakout.

by the way i will stick with my analysis untill the price reach the floor price.