Not so nice head and shoulder, but i still indicate for reversal sign + doji
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
How Does Raising the Key Interest Rate Strengthen Currency?
The key interest rate (also known as the "prime rate") is the percentage that a central bank or monetary authority charges on loans to commercial banks. Raising this rate strengthens a nation's currency because it raises the returns on deposits in a given currency in relation to other currencies, as well as signaling growth in the economy and a decline in inflation.
Prime Rate
The prime rate of any country is controlled by a central bank or monetary authority. In the U.S., this authority is the Federal Reserve. A country's central bank is in charge of monetary policy, and one of its main tools is the prime rate. The Federal Reserve raises or lowers the prime rate to influence national savings, investment, employment, inflation and the exchange rate. The Federal Reserve usually operates on the basis of targets (for example, the target inflation rate is 2 percent).
Reasons to Raise
Raising or lowering the prime rate has specific effects on the economy. Raising the interest rate encourages savings, controls inflation and discourages borrowing and investment. The higher the interest rate, the more money you can make by simply saving (and if the population spends less, inflation proceeds at a slower rate), and the more expensive borrowing becomes. While all of these factors affect the exchange rate in different ways, it's the savings mechanism that immediately strengthens a currency.
Returns
Raising the prime rate raises the returns (the amount paid in interest) on deposits in that currency. When people can make more money with accounts in one currency as opposed to another, they will buy the more lucrative currency until the exchange rate adjusts to the demand. The exchange rate adjusts almost instantly since both buyers and sellers around the world are aware of what is going on, and buyers will immediately start buying while sellers will immediately start raising their prices.
Example
Assume that the euro and the dollar are at parity (one dollar buys one euro and vice versa), and both the E.U. and U.S. prime rates are at 3 percent with annual inflation at 2 percent. If the Federal Reserve raises the prime rate from 3 percent to 3.25 percent, and all else remains constant, deposits in dollars become 25 percent more lucrative than deposits in euros at that exchange rate. As soon as this happens, anyone involved in currency trading will switch their euros to dollars; however, this activity (high demand for dollars, low demand for euros) immediately pushes up the exchange rate because those selling dollars will start asking for more.
Other Signals
Raising the prime rate sends out a number of signals about a nation's economy. Raising the interest rate often signals strong economic growth, to the point where the central bank can make a move that discourages investment and raises the exchange rate (which makes exports less competitive). Raising the interest rate also lowers inflation and can show that the central bank is interested in controlling inflation, which often reassures investors.
Monday, March 28, 2011
GBPUSD daily outlook & mid-day outlook.
As we know last friday was awesome. Move from 1.6090 Breakout from london open was trigger the trend to reach support price at 1.6000. Yes i won, but because last friday is my 1st entry after almot 8 month silent from market without any blocking price so i was quite nervous while my position below 10 pips. :).
Here i post my chart for daily trend by using Elliott wave prediction. Some how if i analyze back the previous trend for last week, GBPUSD was move 450 pip without any big retracement. By using this case most of trader will expect the truly pull back from bottom. But until now i did not see any reversal sign. Hence i expect it could be break more lower until next support at 1.5905.
Chart above is more like charting technique without used any sense of indicator to indicate market direction. Hereinafter daily just break the fractal. Usually once price was break the fractal in daily 50% is continuous trend or 50% otherwise. I have observe this quite many year. But i dont think this is fractal noise.
If 1.5997 is a price breaking from trendline so i assume wave "a" just moved. Next hassle is 1.5818 nearly with parallel trendline and i expect reversal sign is there.
For this moment whant i can tell is just stay with bearish.
This is 1 hour chart.
Price still stick with channel discipline. I still used this chart to make my wise entry.
my idea is
Open sell at 1.5939.
Exit at 1.5905
However since the price is lower i think quite risk to keep selling. keyword is sell on top. but now is already lower and maybe we will face the next lower. I believe with my system.
Regards
Muhamad Yaqin Mhd Nor.
Chartist.
Here i post my chart for daily trend by using Elliott wave prediction. Some how if i analyze back the previous trend for last week, GBPUSD was move 450 pip without any big retracement. By using this case most of trader will expect the truly pull back from bottom. But until now i did not see any reversal sign. Hence i expect it could be break more lower until next support at 1.5905.
Chart above is more like charting technique without used any sense of indicator to indicate market direction. Hereinafter daily just break the fractal. Usually once price was break the fractal in daily 50% is continuous trend or 50% otherwise. I have observe this quite many year. But i dont think this is fractal noise.
If 1.5997 is a price breaking from trendline so i assume wave "a" just moved. Next hassle is 1.5818 nearly with parallel trendline and i expect reversal sign is there.
For this moment whant i can tell is just stay with bearish.
This is 1 hour chart.
Price still stick with channel discipline. I still used this chart to make my wise entry.
my idea is
Open sell at 1.5939.
Exit at 1.5905
However since the price is lower i think quite risk to keep selling. keyword is sell on top. but now is already lower and maybe we will face the next lower. I believe with my system.
Regards
Muhamad Yaqin Mhd Nor.
Chartist.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
expected wise
Previous post was indicate how price moving inside channel, and it's proven again when 1.6090 become Resistance. Late friday GBPUSD just kissed 1.6000 as my expected rallies.
Nothing weird after this, it just pull back from 1.6000 and price will play within this range.
I still monitor weekly time frame. For this moment i still cannot give solid direction where are the market heading. Maybe on next week hope for more clear direction.
Happy weekend.
Friday, March 25, 2011
aroma of Q.Ezi..
the next support is 1.600. huh after quite a long time i never wrote about currency analysis, i felt so noob when i want to elaborate. Well this chart just tried to telling us now price is moving inside channel and 1.6 are waiting to kiss.
But how strong this volume to push the market, the whole week started from monday, market has been in bearish mode. Just a little retracement. Becareful with sudden pull back. But what ever it is.. i believe price will not go so far. If pull back it just to kiss trendline.
rgrds
Thursday, December 2, 2010
It's not about the money, its about the game.
Shall i start with say hello trader ? or do i start with say Sorry guy's long time no snippet ..
Almost one year, yes one year without entry and writing, i really hope all my colleague has a great journey for this year. For a long time i try to seek the new things and new atmosphere, but it doesn't means i stopped to play Forex but i just slow down my trade.
However i am more into offline advising instead of keep posting my analysis through my blog. I followed GBPUSD started from January until today. For those who has a good technical knowledge especially in Trendline, Price action and elliott wave i recommend GBPUSD to applied your knowledge.
Fibonacci steady awesome tools. Magic number delivered their word, when mr Fibo said ok .. wait until 61.8.. and He do. All the practices which i just mentioned is not a system, but the system is apart of them. Human behavior equivalent to market behavior but not equal to trader behavior. Thats the thing emergence of supply and demand.
Regards.
Yaqin.
Monday, January 11, 2010
GBPUSD 2010 first touch
After a long period i stay away from the market,now im back to do the first touch at GBPUSD in 2010. What can i say in GBPUSD currently is a bullish mode and according to the fibonacci the price will trying to reach 100.00 FE. The previous highest is 1.62411 and i hope price will break this high. Nothing much to say. we see what market want. good price to buy is around 1.6110.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Azril Wrote.. "copy from his note".
Forex and Me
I started learning Forex after I ended up penniless from HYIP (High Yield Investment Program) back then in 2004. I remembered back then, I have joined several HYIP programs together with a very close and good friend of mine. We were convinced to join the program as we were referred by a senior from our school who claimed profited from the investment. To cut things short, the program operator claimed that his account was freeze. We have already made 400% return from our investment during that time, but none could be cash-out.
The idea to learn Forex later came to our mind because of all these HYIP programs claimed that they have profited from Forex trading. It was in 2005. Since then, we kept ourselves busy looking for Forex education and gurus - from several forums, blogs and articles which related towards it. Eventually, my friend found a mentor, who we called ‘Godfather’. We started out with Marketiva platform and trade our virtual account. I did not learn much as I did not have PC and internet connection. I only relied on reading materials. I read a lot of Forex books for the rest of the year, but still couldn’t practise it anyhow.
In mid-2005 to 2006, I was busy with some physical businesses. I ran a kiosk in Subang Uptown selling accessories. The businesses were bad. Inappropriately, I turned into larger business in mid-2006, a franchise food kiosk named 1901 in 1 Utama. As the kiosk was operated by my staffs in 2007, I began to continue studying Forex at home from several new books I printed out. Luckily, I got myself a notebook from my mom. It was her old Acer notebook, but yet still functioning till today. I began trading my virtual account and at the same time selling electronics on Lelong.com.my. My trading system was really bad at that time; I almost could not implement any of the system I learned from my studies. I even joined a Forex discussion at UTM, Johor and met a number of seasoned traders. Then, I started to meet several so-called Forex Gurus whom I know from forums.
By the end of 2007, I met Yaqen. He wanted to purchase a mobile phone from me at that time. But we ended chatting about ourselves instead of the purchase he intended at first. Unlike other gurus I knew, he did not claim as one. He claimed himself a street trader. We have similar idea – making money is an art. He found Forex suits him well, while I was still struggling to find one. We started exchanging ideas and thoughts. We became great friends ever since. In early 2008, I invited Yaqen to stay with me as he got problem with his internet connection at home. As a returned favour, he thought me everything about Forex (but I could not absorb them all) and we traded Forex side-by-side. I remembered that I have doubled my virtual account within 2 months. We stayed together for nearly 2 months. After he left, I invested USD 500 into my account. Just within 1 month, all the money has gone. Again, I failed.
But I kept in touch with Yaqen. Both of us were busy during that time; I started to spend more time at the kiosk and went to class at night, while Yaqen started 9 to 5 job, and trade clients’ accounts at night. We used to chat about our problems. He always wanted to quit his job, while I always looked for new opportunity. I closed my kiosk in 2008 and became a freelance writer, writing about property, technology and electronics.
Just recently this year, I decided to start this investment group. Yaqen agreed to join as his big funder just withdraw all his investment and gave Yaqen nearly RM 10,000 from the profit which he had spend ‘wisely’ on his 1-week trip to London. =)
For all these years, Forex really fascinate me. I really want to conquer it, but I don’t think it is one of my traits.
I started learning Forex after I ended up penniless from HYIP (High Yield Investment Program) back then in 2004. I remembered back then, I have joined several HYIP programs together with a very close and good friend of mine. We were convinced to join the program as we were referred by a senior from our school who claimed profited from the investment. To cut things short, the program operator claimed that his account was freeze. We have already made 400% return from our investment during that time, but none could be cash-out.
The idea to learn Forex later came to our mind because of all these HYIP programs claimed that they have profited from Forex trading. It was in 2005. Since then, we kept ourselves busy looking for Forex education and gurus - from several forums, blogs and articles which related towards it. Eventually, my friend found a mentor, who we called ‘Godfather’. We started out with Marketiva platform and trade our virtual account. I did not learn much as I did not have PC and internet connection. I only relied on reading materials. I read a lot of Forex books for the rest of the year, but still couldn’t practise it anyhow.
In mid-2005 to 2006, I was busy with some physical businesses. I ran a kiosk in Subang Uptown selling accessories. The businesses were bad. Inappropriately, I turned into larger business in mid-2006, a franchise food kiosk named 1901 in 1 Utama. As the kiosk was operated by my staffs in 2007, I began to continue studying Forex at home from several new books I printed out. Luckily, I got myself a notebook from my mom. It was her old Acer notebook, but yet still functioning till today. I began trading my virtual account and at the same time selling electronics on Lelong.com.my. My trading system was really bad at that time; I almost could not implement any of the system I learned from my studies. I even joined a Forex discussion at UTM, Johor and met a number of seasoned traders. Then, I started to meet several so-called Forex Gurus whom I know from forums.
By the end of 2007, I met Yaqen. He wanted to purchase a mobile phone from me at that time. But we ended chatting about ourselves instead of the purchase he intended at first. Unlike other gurus I knew, he did not claim as one. He claimed himself a street trader. We have similar idea – making money is an art. He found Forex suits him well, while I was still struggling to find one. We started exchanging ideas and thoughts. We became great friends ever since. In early 2008, I invited Yaqen to stay with me as he got problem with his internet connection at home. As a returned favour, he thought me everything about Forex (but I could not absorb them all) and we traded Forex side-by-side. I remembered that I have doubled my virtual account within 2 months. We stayed together for nearly 2 months. After he left, I invested USD 500 into my account. Just within 1 month, all the money has gone. Again, I failed.
But I kept in touch with Yaqen. Both of us were busy during that time; I started to spend more time at the kiosk and went to class at night, while Yaqen started 9 to 5 job, and trade clients’ accounts at night. We used to chat about our problems. He always wanted to quit his job, while I always looked for new opportunity. I closed my kiosk in 2008 and became a freelance writer, writing about property, technology and electronics.
Just recently this year, I decided to start this investment group. Yaqen agreed to join as his big funder just withdraw all his investment and gave Yaqen nearly RM 10,000 from the profit which he had spend ‘wisely’ on his 1-week trip to London. =)
For all these years, Forex really fascinate me. I really want to conquer it, but I don’t think it is one of my traits.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
avoid from nightmare.
This quater make me remember about last year. I dont want to speculate anything about this end of year but what we can see in higher timeframe (weekly) the trend doesnt stick at their own way.
In technical analysis most of us still expect this is only retracement in wave 4 but how good the accuration according to our technical analysis. Is it a new engagement will come. So what is your mind set now ? bullish or bearish ?.
trader in bullish site always waiting a good oppurtinity for Buy / Long.
trader in bearish site always waiting a good time for Selling / short.
So what site you are ?
Important to us determine the current trend. Are sure there is no trend in Correction mode ? then what happen to smaller timeframe. the trend is there.. only what mind set u programe in your mind.
Here i wanna share some Technical analysis from my opinion about GBPUSD.
the formula is buying > selling. ( buying is greater then selling.) for this moment. so you should know what mind set for trading u should programme in ur mind.
In technical analysis most of us still expect this is only retracement in wave 4 but how good the accuration according to our technical analysis. Is it a new engagement will come. So what is your mind set now ? bullish or bearish ?.
trader in bullish site always waiting a good oppurtinity for Buy / Long.
trader in bearish site always waiting a good time for Selling / short.
So what site you are ?
Important to us determine the current trend. Are sure there is no trend in Correction mode ? then what happen to smaller timeframe. the trend is there.. only what mind set u programe in your mind.
Here i wanna share some Technical analysis from my opinion about GBPUSD.
the formula is buying > selling. ( buying is greater then selling.) for this moment. so you should know what mind set for trading u should programme in ur mind.
Monday, August 31, 2009
from my trading desk.
hi everyone it was a good start last 2 week. market move as i wish (please view my technical analysis at my blog ) especially for GBPUSD instrument. many of my friend ask me why i didnt trade GBPJPY yet ? owh i said this year is for GU :),if last year im very addicted with GBPYEN but an early 2009 i try to change my mind to become an independent trader and not to depends on GBPYEN movement, YES i agree GBPYEN volatility is not like other instrument,easy win and easy to loose.
Ive been trade for 4 years and now become 4 and half year, here is my chronology
May 2006 - Dec 2006.
I just know forex,pair,fundamental analysis ,technical analysis,SELL BUT CLOSE , and i began my trade with demo account with that time i used PFGFX brokerage from Russian.
Jan 2007 - March 2007
Ive been deposit my money for a live trading with 500 usd. at this moment i used elliott wave and MA crossing i forgot what is the setting for my MA that time. But i was lost around 400 usd. And i withdraw 100 usd because i think i need to fine tune my trading.
June 2007 - Dec 2007.
Yes i saw an improvement with my trading. at this moment my trading methodology was Elliott Wave and Fractal apart of "chaos trading" Im very satisfied with this method but i still feel like something less in my tuning. because i cant sustain my trading,sometimes i profit sometimes lost. within 7 month after plus and minus actually i just won 30% from my capital :).
Jan 2008 - June 2008.
Im still trading like usual but at the same time im still learn and find tune my trading setup. Day become day week become week month become month im still using my method and setup for technical and entering the market. Along this month i found a new touch it was a price action and trendline.
July 2008 - Sept 2008.
I become a swing trader,because im very impress with my new knowlege, i can surf at any market.Unfortunetly cloud didnt always bright. Just because of my greedy and over confidence i loss 50% from my capital. But at this time actually my margin already profit running.
Oct 2008 - Dec 2008.
Im still seeking what is my problem? is it my knowledge or is it my psychology ?
i start reading a few book . Certain book i buy direct from amazon.com because its hard to find a forex book in book store except kinokuniya. among a book that i very like until know is," Charting Made Easy", "Chaos Trading 2nd Edition"."Market Wizard","The New Market Wizard","The adventure of a currency trader" and The Way of The turtle. Many content in this book said about psychology when trading and good advise before entering the market. Within this month also i found my own setup after a mixup from chaos, elliott wave and price action and i name it SULTAN.
Jan 2009 - April 2009
Ive tried to implement what i have. Now i know why many trader especially beginner and newbie always die at this war. Foreign Exchange is a leading indicator for a world economic. That means forex trader is in front line of war. Just remember when long time ago when a war has arrive, front line soldier its the most cheaper life. The volatility and impact is very high. How to solve this ?just a knowledge,experience and intelligent is the most important thing u need to bring inside the market.
May 2009 until now.
Im very comfortable with my trade and still using my own setup. The key is patience and snipe just only when u need. dont ever waste your bullet :).
Ive been trade for 4 years and now become 4 and half year, here is my chronology
May 2006 - Dec 2006.
I just know forex,pair,fundamental analysis ,technical analysis,SELL BUT CLOSE , and i began my trade with demo account with that time i used PFGFX brokerage from Russian.
Jan 2007 - March 2007
Ive been deposit my money for a live trading with 500 usd. at this moment i used elliott wave and MA crossing i forgot what is the setting for my MA that time. But i was lost around 400 usd. And i withdraw 100 usd because i think i need to fine tune my trading.
June 2007 - Dec 2007.
Yes i saw an improvement with my trading. at this moment my trading methodology was Elliott Wave and Fractal apart of "chaos trading" Im very satisfied with this method but i still feel like something less in my tuning. because i cant sustain my trading,sometimes i profit sometimes lost. within 7 month after plus and minus actually i just won 30% from my capital :).
Jan 2008 - June 2008.
Im still trading like usual but at the same time im still learn and find tune my trading setup. Day become day week become week month become month im still using my method and setup for technical and entering the market. Along this month i found a new touch it was a price action and trendline.
July 2008 - Sept 2008.
I become a swing trader,because im very impress with my new knowlege, i can surf at any market.Unfortunetly cloud didnt always bright. Just because of my greedy and over confidence i loss 50% from my capital. But at this time actually my margin already profit running.
Oct 2008 - Dec 2008.
Im still seeking what is my problem? is it my knowledge or is it my psychology ?
i start reading a few book . Certain book i buy direct from amazon.com because its hard to find a forex book in book store except kinokuniya. among a book that i very like until know is," Charting Made Easy", "Chaos Trading 2nd Edition"."Market Wizard","The New Market Wizard","The adventure of a currency trader" and The Way of The turtle. Many content in this book said about psychology when trading and good advise before entering the market. Within this month also i found my own setup after a mixup from chaos, elliott wave and price action and i name it SULTAN.
Jan 2009 - April 2009
Ive tried to implement what i have. Now i know why many trader especially beginner and newbie always die at this war. Foreign Exchange is a leading indicator for a world economic. That means forex trader is in front line of war. Just remember when long time ago when a war has arrive, front line soldier its the most cheaper life. The volatility and impact is very high. How to solve this ?just a knowledge,experience and intelligent is the most important thing u need to bring inside the market.
May 2009 until now.
Im very comfortable with my trade and still using my own setup. The key is patience and snipe just only when u need. dont ever waste your bullet :).
Sekian.
Muhamad Yaqin Mhd Nor
p/s Selamat berpuasa to all muslim in this world ;)
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