Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen Broad Drop Could End if Risk Aversion Returns, Analysts Say

The dollar retreated sharply against both the euro and the yen.

The euro was supported by some strength in stocks, while the yen was bolstered by technical factors, analysts said.

While the dollar was broadly weaker, analysts weren't convinced it was the beginning of a wholesale retreat. The dollar could resume strengthening against its rivals in coming sessions if risk aversion once again takes control of the markets, analysts said.

Foreign Exchange Data

In late-afternoon trading in New York, the euro was at $1.2848, up from $1.2675 late Tuesday, and the dollar was at 97.19 yen, down from 98.72 yen. The euro was at 124.87 yen from 125.12 yen. The pound was at $1.3869, up from $1.3747, and the dollar was at 1.1525 Swiss francs, down from 1.1618 francs.

The pound dropped to a six-week low of $1.3663 in overnight trading, ahead of the Bank of England's first foray into quantitative easing, before rebounding.

Since the start of February, the dollar has gained sharply against the yen. Analysts had said this week that a yen rebound was expected.

Jessica Hoversen, fixed-income and foreign-exchange analyst at MF Global in Chicago, said many market participants had expected the dollar to break through 100 yen, and its failure to do so prompted a retreat.

But recent weak Japanese data suggest the dollar's decline against the yen could be limited in coming sessions. "I think the fundamentals alone could support a dollar rally higher from this level," Ms. Hoversen said.

While currency-market participants have temporarily stopped reducing their long yen positions, that is likely to resume, said Francoys Levert, managing director and head of foreign-exchange sales for Canada at State Street Global Markets in Montreal. "There's a lot of bad news coming out of Japan, right now."

Other analysts suggested the dollar faces further downside against the yen. A report from CitiFX said the dollar's move below 97.90 yen could prompt a rapid move to 96.50 yen or lower. "History shows that [the dollar-yen rate] has the capability for really fast downside moves. We would not be surprised if this move takes place in the next 24 hours," the report said.

MF Global's Ms. Hoversen said the euro's gains were driven by an extension of Tuesday's rally and a correction from earlier oversold levels in the common currency. "The fundamentals clearly don't support this," she said.

There has been some decent buying of the euro in the past few sessions, but its gains could prove relatively short-lived, said State Street's Mr. Levert. "We're not convinced this is a sustainable rally in the euro. We think that U.S. dollar buying is still out there," he said

*this article i copy from wallstreet journal because im a subscriber. Enjoy the share ;)

USJJPY forecast " is it reversal sign "

After a long period seeking i retracement Hi. I believe price already consolidate and exhaust.

A few reversal sign has been appear to give us a light.But its just a sign please beware and wait a confirmation from the fundamental sentiment.

Unemployment makes all my Analysis Otherwise (EurUsd review )

Huge fighting yesterday night, i try to hold with short until the price reach the bottom trendline, unfortunately im misslook the Unemployment claim @ 9.30 gmt 8 ( kuala lumpur ). The actual result is "467K".

I assume this data makes my order hit my stop loss ;). Fuck U fundamental hahaha

EurUsd Shi Channel Setup

Ranging market always make trader suffer to make the decision. Usually for this case 1st tips is marked the support and resistance level, draw the trendline, draw the channel, and zoom out your chart. Basically it will show you a clear trend and situation especially where to tackle breakout area.

For now EU still consolidate, but the major movement is bearish bias.

According to the SHI channel, price playing at median line and will try to reach the bottom line. Together we wait and see.

Dollar Ends '09 Win Streak

The dollar retreated against the euro, the yen and the pound as concern flared about the U.S. economy, but the greenback clawed back losses as stock markets crumbled.

Wednesday marked the dollar's first losing session in 2009, snapping a five-day winning streak against the yen and three days of gains versus the euro.

The greenback had fallen against most rivals in overnight trading, stung by the bleak outlook on the U.S. economy shown Tuesday in the minutes of the December meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Foreign Exchange Data

The dollar's slide accelerated after a report by payroll company Automatic Data Processing Inc. and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers indicated private-sector job losses of 693,000 in December, a far larger decline than expected by analysts.

A slump in U.S. equities coincided with the dollar's partial recovery, said analysts.

Late afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.3630, up from $1.3522 late Tuesday. The dollar was at 92.66 yen, down from 93.85 yen, while the euro traded at 126.30 yen, off from 126.91 yen. The pound traded at $1.5110, up from $1.4956, and the dollar was at 1.1016 Swiss francs, below 1.1143 francs late Tuesday.

"Although [the dollar] already was in retreat thanks to the FOMC minutes and President-elect Obama's musing on the potential for 'trillion dollar deficits for years,' the ADP employment report was another stone-cold dose of sober reality about the U.S. economy that helped cut the legs out from under U.S. stocks at the open and stemmed the recent movement toward higher-risk securities," said a report from David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires believe the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls data will show a loss of about 525,000 jobs in December. Wariness ahead of that report could weigh on the dollar Thursday.

"I think there is a case for a somewhat weaker dollar in the run-up to the nonfarm payrolls report," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank in New York.

And while the euro managed to retain a significant portion of it gains, the common currency could prove vulnerable, analysts said.

The euro could be stymied by expectations for continued rate cuts from the European Central Bank, as well as continued deterioration in economic data, said Tyson Wright, at Custom House, a currency-services firm in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.

—Robert Flint contributed to this article.

this article i copy from wallstreet journal because im a subscriber. Enjoy the share ;)

GBPUSD SHI CHANNEL SETUP

Instrument : GBPUSD
TimeFrame : 1 Hour.


Technical Analysis :

This instrument still moving inside the correction. In technical analysis reading the price for right now is bullish bias ( lower timeframe ) but consolidate at higher tframe especially 4 Hour and Daily.

At this moment quite hard for chartist to expect without any fundamental sentiment. But market can be anything.

My advise wait until this pair end the correction. And focus with Major trend ( bearish bias ).

EurJpy Review

Hi my last post was describe about EurJpy movement. At that moment im satisfied with my analysis becauase EJ move up around 100 pip ++ . Unfortunately it wasnt reach 161.8 fibonacci Expansion target and EJ simple turn back and i assume as retracement.

By the way. For right now its not good to swing. Better play safe for being time until this pair end the correction.

Good Evening EurJpy

Hi this is my first analysis for this year, i begin with EURJPY timefame 4hour. In my view at 1 hour timeframe EJ try to complete the correction before trigger the wave C or 3.

my opinion is Bullish bias but there is one hard resistance mebbi could be an obstacle for this pair to breakout.

by the way i will stick with my analysis untill the price reach the floor price.

sweet dream 08.

sweet dream 08. I will miss a lot of movement this year yang giler2 hehehe susah nak jumpe kot volatility mcm bulan 9 10 ari tu mmg giler la ehhe..

by the way i would like to say a million thanks to my blog follower yg sudi membaca dan juga nasihat2 yng membina dari kawan2.

to all chartist and trader are you ready to rawk the market in 2009 ehhee.. in my opinion 2009 its hard to expect.. better play safe. If we expect all the major is Bearish stick with short. Becarefull with big big pull back and retracement. 2009 can be suffer season for market specially in stock and index. But forex still as usual ... breakaway ,correction, breakaway, correction just that ehehe.

early next year mebbi i will start active to give my opinion through offline or market kedai kopi.. but blogging still blogging. I will start to give my consultation to the beginer2 and newbie. Hope u all sudi belaja dengan saya .. eheh..

ok la good luck semua.. let rawk with 2009..


age is just a number la bro ahahaha.. kan "stardust" kan ;)

silence at the edge of market

Heyya ( ouch who always using this ) haha nevermind. so hows going on.. sory to all my fellow for a being time this blog is "sepi" hehe. by the way.. i think dat im silence in a right time. Usually end of the year market unstable so its good if i stay away from market.

One month i just watched and preview back the movement.. erm in my opinion yeah its unstable but the movement is like not inside the correction. Each breakout will take 50 - 100 sumtimes 200 pip. Owh thats good if i trade but im quite afraid because last year December ever grab my happyness, so for now i beware with black december hahaha.. Last year movement to many false breakout trap the breakout chartist like me.. so what should i do.. ehhe just see my money flying haha.

InsyaAllah if next week or early Jan i will post again about my Technical and opinion. :)

Cya happy new year kea.. take care and enjoy.