Reverse strategy.

In my previous post i was forecast, GBPUSD will bounce downward from the timeline. But when i spotted price action on TF15, i just close my sell order and open buy extra 1 lot.

How to determine price action?
It depends on your observation and credit hours watching market. The pattern is the same, experience always a leading indicator to make a decision. Whats make me open buy?

1. There is a solid price pattern to break a trendline.
2. In H4 candlestick break higher price of previous candle.
3. Open fibonacci expansion and check the next price resistance.
4. Open buy. depends on your money management.

But to immediate turn on decision and setup its quite hard, i takes me a year and burn some of money before i build my confidence.

Bear in mind always in a calculated risk before you take any decision.

Regards
Muhamad Yaqin

GBPUSD Test Water.

Hello everyone

.Here is the simple analysis of GBPUSD. Yesterday i stay away from market and just monitor through my trendline, technically yesterday there is one good signal to short Sell. Daily breakout break lowest previous candle. But today ranging market are to bearish bias. Was sell at 1.59977 with 30pip Target Profit has been set.

Europe must do 'real' business

For decades the West lectured the East on how to manage their economies, but now the shoe is on the other foot.

Emerging Asia is the model of steady, consistent economic policy and sustained growth; while America, Europe and Japan are mired in debt and slow growth or even recession.

If any Asian leader can lay claim to some of the foundations his country's economic expansion it is Malaysia's Mahathir bin Mohamad. During his two decades in power he helped transform Malaysia from a sleepy former colony into an economic tiger. Doctor M - as he is known - is a controversial figure though, renowned for his barbed comments aimed at the West.

BBC Business Daily's Justin Rowlatt asked Dr M what he thought of the current economic crisis:

Full transcript below

Mahathir bin Mohamad: In the East we are still doing real business, while in the West you are not doing real business, in the sense of producing goods and providing services. You are dealing mostly in the financial market, which is not doing anything productive. It's just a kind of gambling.

Justin Rowlatt: So, do you think there's something that the West can learn from the way Asia has developed its economies?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Yeah. Asia was a poor part of the world in the past and we used to live as poor people, and slowly we are building up our wealth and now of course we are much better off. But what I perceive is that Europe now, because of these bubble bursts, you have actually lost a lot of money and therefore you must be poor now relative to the past. And in Asia we live within our means. So when we are poor, we live as poor people. I think that is a lesson that Europe can learn from East Asia.

Justin Rowlatt: Okay. So what do you recommend? What should Europe do?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: I think you should go back to doing what I call real business - producing goods, providing services, trading - not just moving figures in bank books, which is what you are doing.

Justin Rowlatt: Well, I think people who work in the financial sector would argue that they are providing valuable services for business.

Mahathir bin Mohamad: I don't think so. They are just making use and, at times, abusing the system in order to make money for themselves. And as you know, they spin off no jobs, no businesses. For example, trading in currency amounts to about $4 trillion a day, which is the total production of Germany in one year, but whereas in Germany they create jobs and businesses and trading, etc. This currency trading worth $4 trillion does not create any jobs or spin off any business. So it is not a very productive kind of activity.

Justin Rowlatt: Now obviously currency trading has been a big issue for you, hasn't it? I mean you famously pegged the Malaysian currency, didn't you, to stop currency speculators who you thought were damaging the Malaysian economy?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Well, currency is not a commodity. You sell coffee, coffee can be eaten or can be ground and made into a cup of coffee. But currency, you cannot grind it and make it into anything. It is just figures in the books of the banks and you can trade with figures in the books of banks only. There must be something solid to trade; then you can legitimately make money.

Justin Rowlatt: So what do you think we should do? Do you think we should stop having floating exchange rates?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Well, floating exchange rate is fine, but it's not just floating by itself. Some people are manipulating it simply by short selling for example. If you keep on selling currencies, as you know, that will depress the price of the currency. And if you keep on buying, it will escalate. So you can take your profit at any time, whether going up or down. That is manipulation. It's not speculation. It's not playing the market at all. You are just managing the market to make money for yourself.

Justin Rowlatt: So what would you recommend that we do? How do we stop this currency trading that you think is so damaging?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: The government should reclaim its position to regulate these things. This idea that the market would regulate itself is quite wrong because the market is about making money, making profits for themselves. They don't care what happens to other people. Impoverished countries like Malaysia, for example, and lots of people suffer. But governments should care and see that these abuses of the system should be solved or regulated.

Justin Rowlatt: You think there should be regulation of currency trading?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Yes, I believe really that currency trading has no role at all. We would not suffer if we don't have currency trading, but you have to change currency in order to trade. Now that should be allowed. But speculation, pushing up prices, short selling, all these things should stop.

Justin Rowlatt: Okay. So coming back to Europe and Europe's predicaments, how difficult a situation do you think that Europe is in now?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: I think in the first place you are in a state of denial. You refuse to acknowledge that you have lost money and therefore you are poor. And you can't remedy that by printing money. Money is not something that you just print. It must be backed by something, either good economy or gold. And I think gold is sold in every country. It has a value at any one time. So pegging it to gold will result in currency value being much more steady and easier to do business in fact.

Justin Rowlatt: How long do you think it will take Europe to get out of the problems that it's in at the moment?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Well, it will take a long time, because to recover your wealth you have to work over many years to rebuild your capacities, to produce goods and services to sell to the world, to compete with the eastern countries.

Justin Rowlatt: So your key message to Europe now is start working hard to rebuild your economies?

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Yes. I think you have paid your workers far too much money for much less work. So, you cannot expect to live at this level of wealth when you are not producing anything that is marketable.

Justin Rowlatt: This is a tough message.

Mahathir bin Mohamad: Yes, it is. We used to get tough messages from you before, remember? And now what is the result. Sometimes you undermined our currency and we became very poor. Well, we learn from each other. We were euro-centric before. I think it should be a little bit Asia-centric now.

Forex - EUR/JPY gains on Greek austerity vote

The euro gained against the yen on Monday after Greek lawmakers voted in favor of undergoing tough economic austerity measures in exchange for bailout funding.

In Asian trading on Monday, EUR/JPY hit 102.82, up 0.39%, up from a session low of 102.46 and off from a high of 102.94.

The pair was likely to find support at 102.16, Friday's low, and resistance at 103.29, Thursday’s high.

Parliamentary approval of austerity measures, including painful pension reforms and public-sector layoffs, lowers the chances of Greece running into a messy default in March.

Officials from the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund were demanding austerity from Greece in exchange for access to a EUR130 billion bailout facility.

News of the approval in parliament sparked demand for the euro and for equities worldwide.

Furthermore, Japan's gross domestic product contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 0.6% on year, more than an expected decline of 0.3%.

The euro, meanwhile, was up against both the pound and the dollar, withEUR/GBP gaining 0.16% to 0.8389 and EUR/USD gaining 0.38% at 1.3249.

On Monday Japan will address benchmark lending rates while in in the U.K., the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' House Price Balance will hit the wire.

Australia is to publish business confidence figures.

Also Monday, Switzerland is to release official data on producer price inflation, an important gauge of consumer inflation.

Teasing square.

Im welcoming the 2012, the new decade, with open heart. happy new year and happy new decade. i still feels like living in 90's.

im writing this entry at a very odd place you can imagine. people around me are people who i dont want to meet in my real life. 2011 has been a year that changed my life, how i view and appreciate things.

i donno what to write anymore. so many things inside my head right now. i hope you guys are doing good. well, no one reads my blog. so, this is just reminder to me in future.

when i leave soon, i hope they will understand. i think im done. you guys dont need me anymore.

(;

Recent issue about halal and haram in forex

Usually i will deny any news or statement from any bureau who said forex cannot be played because there are few rules and regulation that Islam did not allowed. Most of islam economist has been agreed forex is Haram because of leverage. They said leverage is wrong in concept of buying selling. Gold must be trade with Gold, silver must be trade with silver. There is no loan concept to leverage the capital, with 1 one ringgit after leverage 1:500, that 1 ringgit can buy until 500 lot per price. So they assume 1 ringgit can turn to 500 ringgit with using leverage concept.

Leverage in financial instrument is a must, especially for who own micro account <1000 usd per margin. Less than USD 1000.00 is consider mini account. If you were deposit USD 1000.00 into your trading account, broker will offer you what kind of leverage that you prefer. It will start from 1:100 1:500 and 1:1000. This leverage is important and must be suit with our trading plan and money management. For normally trader will takes 1:200 up to 1:500, is quite rare for 1:1000 because for me too risky.

With using leverage you can adjust your lot and position sizing. for me there is no benefit for my money it just using when i want to enter and open the position. Leverage in forex is not same like leverage in banking system. with rm 1000.00 you can leverage up to rm 2000.00 and you walk out inside the bank with rm 2000.00 loan. So why this case our mufti did not bother ? this is the true insane leverage and interest.

I am not buyer with any who's who. i am just an independent trader and observer with current issue. I think if you are confident with this games, just proceed. Dont turn back.. until now i did not see any holes to claim or said forex is illegal.

Regards.

Financial information gap in India.

In the financial world, information is money. And before we decide to invest, we need to learn more about the company in order to make an educated decision. Heckyl, an Indian-based start-up, helps to make financial information and fact-finding about a stock, FOREX or commodity really simple. It’s basically an investment help tool that aggregates content in real-time from social platforms (Twitter, YouTube, blogs), online news publishers, and analyst reports. (Screenshots below)

The tool is specifically built for brokerage firms in India and we’re told that there are about 20 of them serving over 18 million investors in the country. Users can access these information for free through the brokerage firm’s online platform. There is also an option for them to gain additional insights if they pay a monthly subscriber fee. The brokerage firm and Heckyl will do a revenue share at 20:80 ratio.

Heckyl has so far partnered with three brokerage firms which gives them a good 500,000 users head start. It is growing very quickly and I was told that the one million users milestone is soon approaching as well.

That’s a quite a few users to start. But I was curious why investors in India didn’t just use Yahoo Finance when doing research? The founders told me that many layman investors do use Yahoo Finance but also said that unfortunately Yahoo doesn’t have much information about the Indian financial market (see below).

Oops!

Logging on to different sites when researching a stock is cumbersome and slow. And the expensive Bloomberg terminal obviously isn’t something that every layman investor can afford. So Heckyl came in to narrow the information gap in the financial market in India.

The team looks solid too. All four Heckyl’s founders used to work as banking engineers at Merrill Lynch prior to taking on this entrepreneur route. The folks built the product in the last two year while they paid for bread and bills with their own savings and a small investment from a friend. With the product now ready, the team is hunting for brokerage firms to work with. They added:

The partnership with the first brokerage firm took us about three months to seal the deal. The second one took about two months and the third one about one month. It gets easier as more firms come on board.

From what I have understood, Heckyl is looking to add a killer feature very soon. There should be some good news coming from the team as they seek for more mega partnerships and investment money in order to scale faster, and expanding to markets like the U.S, U.K, China, and Singapore.

snippet

Many years i spend my life with financial instrument, began with forex trading until bank instrument such as Bank Guarantee & Stand By letter of Credit. Eventhough my major field is software engineering but my life eager and more into financial field.

Involvement in finance really needs a good decision making, many people came to me by proposing a lot of investment scheme, i did not say they are scam or ridiculous program but it just a matter you want to be rich, or you want to play the games.

There is no such thing is this world can bring from bottom to top with instant, unless God say's like that. What i have learn is process. How do you think, how do you analyst and how do you decide.

Long time ago i am very hard core forex trader, i make a lot of money, i ever trade with a huge capital until i feel money is easy. But when recession arrive no one can rescue me.

To good to be true, nevertheless i am still comfort with forex trading. For now i am just enroll with GBPUSD, this is the only pair that i really recognized the behavior and the pattern.

When you reach one level of master trader, actually there is no methodology, no elliott wave no pattern and no SMA or MA. What do you have is just your confident and your self. Even naked chart also i can trade. I am not talking big.

Regards.

london riot ? does riot effected to financial market.

"In the eyes of the financial markets, Britain was supposed to be a model of successful, sustainable austerity and a safe haven in which the world's rich could buy houses and stash their savings"

The riots that turned London and some other English cities upside down this week have undermined that model, raising questions about the sustainability of spending cuts and a widening gap between rich and poor.

From many of the dealing rooms and offices in the skyscrapers of Canary Wharf, traders, wealth managers and analysts could see billowing smoke in several directions this week as rioters torched buildings and looted shops.

Order was restored in the capital at least on Tuesday night with a massive show of force by police, but they too face the drastic spending cuts that will affect everything from the military to social benefits and inner-city services.

Britain's coalition government says it remains committed both to cutting a record budget deficit and staying in power until elections due by 2015.

Investors have always had mixed feelings about austerity. They want the British government to tackle the huge deficit to slow its accumulation of debt. But they also fear that cuts will push the economy back into recession, hitting corporate earnings and tax income while raising social spending costs and actually pushing the country deeper into debt.

Nevertheless, they had generally compared British determination to cut the deficit favorably with the indecision or infighting paralyzing much policy-making in the euro zone and United States. Now, they are not so sure.

"If you'd asked me at the weekend, I would have said that with the problems of the euro zone and U.S., (Britain's) sterling (currency) might be poised to become an appealing safe haven," said Simon Derrick, head of foreign exchange at the London branch of Bank of New York Mellon.

As he spoke, from his dealing room Derrick could still see smoke on the horizon from a distant burning warehouse. "This has certainly shaken that... it's probably still too soon to say what it means for policy, but it certainly makes austerity look more difficult."

The short-term market impact looks to have been limited. Derrick said U.S. media coverage of the London riots prompted a modest sell-off in the pound late on Tuesday, but markets have largely shrugged off the violence.

Indeed, the cost of insuring Britain's debt in the credit default swaps market edged below that ofGermany this week for the first time -- with investors clearly believing worries that Germany might have to bail out Italy and Spain outstripped concerns about Britain.

After unexpected uprisings shook the Middle East and North Africa earlier this year, wealth managers say billions were transferred to London in particular as nervous regional leaders and business elites raced to move their wealth to safety.

Attracted by a reputation for stability and the opportunity for a luxury lifestyle -- as well as a strong legal system and systems allowing them to conceal their wealth through trusts and other structures -- they bought property and other assets.

But this week's events have undermined London's safe haven appeal and some analysts expect louder calls for both tighter controls on unfettered wealth and a rethinking of planned cuts.

Some countries such as Latvia and Ireland have pushed through massive cuts with relatively little unrest but not everyone can pull off the same trick. The British riots could point to similar risks in other European and U.S. cities as cuts start to bite.

ONLY THE BEGINNING?

"I don't think the implications of this have been fully thought through or accepted yet," said Pepe Egger, western Europe analyst for London-based consultancy Exclusive Analysis.

"What we have here is the result of decades of growing divisions and marginalization, but austerity will almost certainly make it worse. Yes, the police can restore control with massive force but that is not sustainable either in the long term. You have to accept that this may happen again."

Speaking to Reuters late on Tuesday, looters and other local people in east London pointed to the wealth gap as the underlying cause, also blaming what they saw as police prejudice and a host of recent scandals.

Spending cuts were now hitting the poorest hardest, they said, and after tales of politicians claiming excessive expenses, alleged police corruption and bankers getting rich it was their turn to take what they wanted [ID:nL6E7J91RM].

"They set the example," said one youth after riots in the London district of Hackney. "It's time to loot."

Unsurprisingly, the criminality produced a swift popular backlash. Vigilante groups patrolled some streets, while media and social networks were deluged with demands for tough action.

This itself could pose one of the greatest initial challenges to spending cuts. Prime Minister David Cameron made it clear all necessary resources would be available to the police, but the government also says it will still stick to its plans to cut police spending by roughly a fifth.

POLICE CUTS CHALLENGED

That contrasts with the 1980s approach of Margaret Thatcher, who slashed public spending and took on trade unions in the face of unrest but plowed money into the police and military.

Support for police cuts is dwindling. London Mayor Boris Johnson, a leading member of the ruling Conservative party, called on Wednesday for them to be watered down.

Analyst Louise Taggart at security consultancy AKE said that in time urban unrest worries could make it harder to cut other programs as well, including sorely needed education and community services. It went well beyond Britain, she said.

"Across Europe, we've already seen some incidence of civil unrest," she said, saying it would almost inevitably impact policy. "There's definitely a likelihood that similar scenes might erupt when austerity cuts really start to be felt."

If slashing spending is less of an option, Western states may have little option but to pursue ever more rounds of quantitative easing, effectively printing money whilst keeping benefits, wages and spending programs largely static.

That could bring its own problems -- not just inflation hitting the savings of the rich and the buying power of the poor but also increased tensions between Western states and emerging economies such as China that hold their debt.

"The most likely path from here is for no changes being made and moving into inflating the debt away -- unfortunately" said Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank.

However, he warned that this alone would not restore social or financial stability without more fundamental systemic change. "For a society to grow and move forward all social classes need to benefit from growth," he said.

ref : http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/10/us-britain-riots-austerity-idUSTRE77953X20110810

Exhausted Bull

Exhausted Bull.

1. Price look consolidate at this moment.

2. Trendline was reject the resistance.

3. Retracement should appear in this hour.

4. Bearish bias, sell at a good price.

5. 61.8 FE as my guideline for exit.